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By Greg Sheridan

JOHN Howard and George W.Bush will focus on Iraq during intensive discussions in the days leading up to the APEC meetings in Sydney.

This comes as both leaders have expressed continuing criticism and frustration with the inability of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to make significant progress towards a political compromise in Iraq.

In an interview with The Weekend Australian yesterday, Mr Howard described Mr Maliki’s performance as “disappointing” and criticised the Iraqi Government’s decision to have parliament take a month-long holiday.

“I know it’s hot, but surely they’ve got airconditioning,” Mr Howard said.

Sources said Mr Maliki’s days as Prime Minister are almost certainly numbered, to be measured in weeks rather than months.

But Mr Howard denied there was any US or Australian-sponsored plan to get rid of Mr Maliki: “There’s no strategy afoot in relation to that from the (US-led) coalition,” he said. “We’re not backing another horse, but I am articulating with Maliki some frustration at the slowness of the reconciliation process, while recognising fully the difficulty of his job.”

The Australian revealed earlier this month that Mr Howard had written to Mr Maliki expressing this frustration. He urged him to pass hydrocarbon legislation, which would lead to a sharing of Iraq’s oil revenue with the minority Sunni population, and new de-Baathification laws that would enable more Sunnis to participate in the civil service. Mr Howard has yet to receive a reply.

Overnight, the US released a National Intelligence Estimate that casts doubt on the ability of Iraq’s government leaders to reach a sustainable political compromise by early next year.

Mr Howard also raised the possibility of Australia maintaining its troop levels in Iraq even if the Americans or the British were to make reductions: “You’ve got to always keep a sense of proportion about the size of our force.

“It’s doing terrific work but compared to the American force, it’s quite small. This idea that if there’s a reduction of the US or British force, then there’s automatically got to be a reduction in our force ignores that it’s a much smaller number.

“In any event, I don’t get the word that the Americans are going to change their policy in Iraq. I think President Bush will want to see the surge through.”

Mr Howard said that those commentators who had interpreted his letter to Mr Maliki as preparing the ground for an Australian withdrawal had misinterpreted him.

“Some people are suggesting the comments I made in my letter indicated we were getting ready to dramatically change our position. That’s not right.”

Instead, Mr Howard indicated that Australia was committed to Iraq and Afghanistan for the long haul. “Any sign of coalition defeat in Iraq would be disastrous for the war on terror,” he said.

Mr Howard believes his position will be appreciated in the US no matter who wins the presidential election in November next year: “The other side of politics in America (the Democrats) is saying they want us to stay.

“My belief is that the next Democrat president (should a Democrat win) will be mugged by reality in the Middle East. We’re already getting signs of that.”

The Prime Minister is thought likely to be saving up several bilateral announcements to make with Mr Bush during the US President’s stay in Australia.

Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said formal consideration was being given to holding the first summit of the Trilateral Security Dialogue involving Australia, the US and Japan. This would see Mr Howard, Mr Bush and Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, holding a meeting while all are in Sydney for APEC.

Mr Downer was responding to Japanese press reports that the first TSD summit would occur in Sydney on September 8, on the sidelines of APEC.

China has on occasions expressed its displeasure at the formation of the TSD.

However, Mr Howard said that although Canberra had received some diplomatic representations from the Chinese on the TSD, no Chinese leader had raised the matter with him, formally or informally, in conversation or in correspondence.

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